ICS Cybersecurity Forecast for 2023/2024

The forecast for cybersecurity in the Industrial Control Systems space (ICS) for 2023 is based on the metrics available for 2022. Please note that the forecast is speculative and subject to change as new information becomes available.

1. Increased Targeting of ICS: As the importance of critical infrastructure grows, attackers will continue to target Industrial Control Systems. The number of cyberattacks against ICS is likely to increase, driven by both state-sponsored actors and financially motivated cybercriminals. These attacks may aim to disrupt operations, compromise sensitive data, or cause physical damage.

2. Ransomware Attacks on ICS: Ransomware has emerged as a significant threat in recent years, affecting various sectors. In 2023, the ICS sector may experience a rise in ransomware attacks. Attackers may employ sophisticated techniques to encrypt ICS systems and demand significant ransom payments, putting organizations under immense pressure to restore operations quickly.

3. Supply Chain Attacks: Supply chain attacks, where malicious actors compromise trusted software or hardware components, have become a growing concern. In 2023, the ICS sector may witness an increase in supply chain attacks, potentially impacting the integrity and security of ICS systems. Organizations will need to prioritize supply chain risk management and adopt rigorous vetting processes for their vendors and suppliers.

4. Emergence of Advanced Threats: As adversaries become more sophisticated, the ICS sector will face advanced threats that leverage zero-day vulnerabilities and complex attack methodologies. Attackers may exploit gaps in ICS security architectures and target specific weaknesses, making it crucial for organizations to invest in advanced threat detection and response capabilities.

5. Continued Focus on Vulnerability Management: Vulnerability management will remain a key priority for ICS security in 2023. Organizations will need to establish robust processes to identify, assess, and remediate vulnerabilities promptly. Patch management, network segmentation, and regular security assessments will be essential to maintain a resilient ICS environment.

6. Regulatory Compliance and Standards: Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are recognizing the criticality of securing ICS environments. In 2023, there may be an increased emphasis on ICS cybersecurity regulations and standards. Organizations will need to ensure compliance with relevant frameworks, such as the NIST Cybersecurity Framework or industry-specific guidelines, to demonstrate their commitment to protecting critical infrastructure.

7. Enhanced Security Awareness and Training: As the human factor remains a significant vulnerability, organizations will invest in security awareness and training programs for employees. Training initiatives will aim to educate staff about common attack vectors, phishing techniques, and the importance of adhering to security protocols. Regular awareness campaigns will be crucial to foster a culture of cybersecurity within ICS organizations.

8. Collaboration and Information Sharing: Recognizing the collective defense approach, industry collaboration and information sharing will gain further importance in 2023. Organizations will actively participate in sharing threat intelligence, best practices, and incident response experiences with peers and relevant cybersecurity communities to stay ahead of emerging threats.

These predictions are based on the understanding that the threat landscape is dynamic and ever-evolving. As the year progresses, new vulnerabilities, attack vectors, and regulatory developments may influence the actual cybersecurity landscape for Industrial Control Systems in 2023. Organizations should remain vigilant, adapt their security strategies accordingly, and stay abreast of the latest cybersecurity trends and practices.